Morning Grains Report 10/11/18

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 11
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL October Oct. 12, 2018 16 Oct 05, 2018
SOYBEAN OIL October Oct. 12, 2018 38 Oct 09, 2018

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2018 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Thursday.
U.S. 2018 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)

Average Range USDA Sept. USDA 2017
Corn Production 14,851 14,700-14,969 14,827 14,604
Corn Yield 181.8 180.6-183.0 181.3 176.6
Harvested Acres 81.7 81.4-81.9 81.8 82.7
Soybean Production 4,733 4,623-4,890 4,693 4,392
Soybean Yield 53.4 52.0-55.0 52.8 49.1
Harvested Acres 88.7 88.2-88.9 88.9 89.5
Corn Soybean
Harvested
Production Yield Acres Production Yield Acres
Advanced Market 14,908 182.3 81.8 4,756 53.5 88.9
AgriSource 14,842 181.7 81.7 4,746 53.5 88.7
Agrivisor 14,800 181.0 81.8 4,714 53.2 88.6
Allendale 14,850 181.6 81.8 4,692 53.1 88.4
DC Analysis 14,845 181.5 81.8 4,711 53.3 88.4
Doane 14,927 182.5 81.8 4,718 53.5 88.2
EDF Man 14,969 183.0 81.8 4,800 54.0 88.9
Farm Futures 14,905 182.0 81.9 4,702 53.0 88.7
Hueber Report 14,700 180.6 81.4 4,623 52.0 88.9
INTL FCStone 14,939 182.7 81.8 4,779 54.0 88.5
Sid Love Consulting 14,833 182.0 81.5 4,729 53.5 88.4
North Star Commodity 14,802 181.0 81.8 4,747 53.4 88.9
Price Group 14,745 180.9 81.5 4,688 53.0 88.5
Prime Ag 14,888 182.0 81.8 4,756 53.5 88.9
RJO Brien 14,822 182.0 N/A 4,727 53.2 N/A
RMC 14,847 181.5 81.8 4,890 55.0 88.9
US Commodities 14,854 181.6 81.8 4,721 53.1 88.9
Vantage RM 14,928 182.5 81.8 4,747 53.4 88.9
Western Milling 14,806 181.0 81.8 4,712 53.0 88.9
Zaner 14,817 181.8 81.5 4,710 53.1 88.7

DJ CORRECT: U.S. October Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey (Oct. 8)
(“U.S. October Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey,” on Oct. 8 at 09:20 EDT, misstated the soybean and wheat average and range.)
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2018-19
Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 1,932 1,774-2,352 1,774
Soybeans 907 778-975 845
Wheat 975 895-1,335 935
2018-19
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 1,825 885 945
AgriSource 1,927 942 945
Agrivisor 1,935 942 942
Allendale 1,908 934 952
DC Analysis 1,900 901 915
Doane 2,000 870 1000
EDF Man 1,820 910 960
Farm Futures 1,960 823 997
Hueber Report 1,774 778 935
INTL FCStone 2,352 935 990
Sid Love Consulting 1,918 892 943
North Star Commodity 1,835 950 950
Price Group 1,855 883 922
Prime-Ag 1,923 941 962
RJO Brien 2,047 975 987
RMC 2,150 942 1,335
US Commodities 1,914 896 895
Vantage RM 1,920 960 950
Western Milling 1,804 890 1,020
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,872 895 958

DJ October World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2017-18 and 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2017-18 Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 195.0 192.0-197.5 194.2
Soybeans 95.4 94.7-97.3 94.7
Wheat 274.5 273.0-276.0 274.4
2018-19
Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 159.2 156.0-165.9 157.0
Soybeans 109.4 105.5-113.0 108.3
Wheat 261.1 259.0-263.7 261.3
2017-18 2018-19
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 196.2 95.5 N/A 158.9 109.8 260.4
Agrivisor N/A N/A N/A 156.0 108.5 260.0
Allendale 197.1 95.0 274.4 159.2 110.1 261.9
Doane 197.5 96.0 275.0 164.0 111.0 262.0
EDF Man 195.0 96.0 276.0 160.0 110.0 263.0
Farm Futures 192.0 95.0 273.0 158.0 113.0 260.0
Hueber Report 194.2 94.7 274.4 156.0 108.0 259.0
INTL FCStone 193.4 95.2 275.0 165.9 105.5 263.7
North Star Comm 195.0 95.2 275.0 158.5 109.5 261.0
Prime-Ag N/A N/A N/A 160.0 110.0 260.0
RMC 194.3 94.8 274.3 157.1 108.4 261.3
US Commodities 195.0 95.3 274.1 158.1 108.8 260.3
Western Milling 195.0 95.0 274.0 158.0 109.0 260.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 195.9 97.3 274.4 159.8 110.1 263.4

DJ Brazil Forecasts 2018-2019 Soybean Crop of 117M Tons-119.4M Tons
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazil’s farmers could produce another record harvest of soybeans in the 2018-2019 growing season as demand remains strong enough to spur growers to increase the area planted with the crop, according to Brazilian crop agency Conab.
The country will grow from 117 million metric tons to 119.4 million metric tons of soybeans in the current growing season, in which planting has already begun, Conab said Thursday. In the 2017-2018 season, Brazil’s farmers produced a record 119.3 million tons of soybeans.
“Even with expectations of a big crop in North America, prices are still at levels considered profitable by producers,” Conab said in its monthly grains bulletin.
Brazil is the world’s second-largest soybean producer, after the U.S., and has produced several consecutive record crops in recent years as demand for the oilseed from China has remained strong. The trade dispute between China and the U.S. has increased demand for Brazilian soybeans, but Brazilian farmers have said that they aren’t planting more of the crop in response to the dispute and instead are increasing production in line with the rise in demand in recent years.
The country’s mild winters permit its farmers to plant to crops in most areas, and they frequently alternate between soybeans and corn. Brazil will produce from 89.7 million metric tons of corn to 91.1 million tons in 2018-2019, Conab said. In 2017-2018, the country grew 80.8 million tons, according to the agency.

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat was lower as traders prepared for the next round of USDA reports on Thursday. The reports last month were bearish for prices, and traders are worried about bearish data again this week. Firm prices extend from Russia to Australia on reduced world production. It remains very dry in Australia, and yield and production estimates continue to drop well below those estimated by USDA. It is reported to be wet and cold in Siberia, but planting conditions are reported to be improved near the Black Sea. Harvest has been difficult in parts of the Canadian Prairies due to snow and cold weather. Bullish traders think it is just a matter of time before world buyers turn to the US as the other major exporters would be out of Wheat for export, but for now the buyers are looking everywhere they can for other origins and are trying to avoid US Wheat. The weather in the US is improved for planting the next Winter Wheat crop as much of the Great Plains has seen rains in the last couple of weeks. More rain is possible later this week.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers this week and drier weather this weekend. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see showers most of the week, then drier weather. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 510, 505, and 500 December, with resistance at 525, 527, and 531 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 516, 507, and 499 December, with resistance at 529, 531, and 534 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed . Support is at 586, 584, and 582 December, and resistance is at 597, 599, and 600 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower yesterday on ideas that USDA will increase US production estimates on Thursday. Futures ar still holding the overall up trend and could move higher after the report that will be released later today. Farmers think prices are too cheap and are still concentrating on harvesting in most areas. The second crop harvest in Texas and Louisiana will be underway soon. Good to excellent yields have been reported in Texas and Louisiana so far, and good to very good yield reports are being heard in Mississippi and Arkansas. Cash prices are somewhat weaker as mills and elevators fill up. Milling yields have been acceptable to very good. Export demand has been good, and was especially strong last week as futures moved lower. Good export demand is expected to continue.
Overnight News: The Delta should see showers and storms today and Sunday, otherwise dry weather. Temperatures should be near normal. .
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1200 November. Support is at 1090, 1075, and 1065 November, with resistance at 1104, 1119, and 1140 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little lower on ideas that USDA will show bigger yields and bigger production in its new estimates today. Rains now in the Midwest are keeping the harvest slow and are causing some traders to talk of potential yield loss and damage to crops. The rains are moving out now and drier weather is forecast for the next week. Chart patterns remain bullish and point to moves to about 378 December and then just under 400 December over time. The harvest is now delayed due to a lot of rain seen recently in the Midwest. Harvest data as reported by producers still suggest that the crop can be another very big one, but that USDA might be a little high in its yield estimates. Harvest yield reports appear stronger in the eastern belt than to the west. It has been a warm Summer as average temperatures have generally been a few degrees above long-term averages. The warm temperatures have pushed maturity forward by up to two weeks or so. Rain patterns have been very tropical, with some areas getting way too much rain and others staying relatively dry.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations cancelled a purchase of 140,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 360, 355, and 350 December, and resistance is at 370, 372, and 376 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 279, 270, and 265 December, and resistance is at 290, 294, and 297 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and product were lower as the trade looks ahead to the USDA reports today and anticipates a very big production estimate. Some selling was seen in response to news that President Trump is threatening more tariffs on China if it continues to devalue its currency. Some buying was seen yesterday as big rains in the Midwest have interrupted the harvest and created quality concerns. Some damage from shattered beans or sprouting beans is possible, and other problems could come soon. The rains are now moving out of the Midwest and drier weather is expected, but there still appears to be damage to crops. Demand has held strong as other importers have been buying in the US in a big way as US prices are very cheap. They are cheaper than South American prices even with the 25% tariffs. Traders hope this trend continues, and traders also think that China will eventually need to find a way to buy US Soybeans at a reduced rate as they can’t buy enough in South America and other areas to cover their needs. Farmers are actively planting in Brazil and overall planting progress is much ahead of normal. Rains are reported to be just good enough in the Mato Grosso and more than enough in Parana, where some problems might emerge if the rains do not become less.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 843, 837, and 829 November, and resistance is at 860, 875, and 881 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 310.00, 308.00, and 306.00 December, and resistance is at 322.00, 324.00, and 327.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2880, 2840, and 2810 December, with resistance at 2960, 3000, and 3040 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower along with Chicago. It is possible that the market hit a short-term peak this week as the weather is now turning drier nd harvest progress can increase Harvest progress has remained slow due to uneven weather and harvest conditions. stronger Soybean Oil prices supported Canola prices, but Soybean Oil was also lower yesterday. The weaker Canadian Dollar supported prices. The Canola harvest is active, but producers are not selling as overall progress is at least a week behind. Reports indicate slow progress in the western growing areas due to cold and wet weather. Snow is falling in some areas, and the harvest in these areas is stopped. Quality and yield losses are expected in these areas Palm Oil was lower on disappointing data on exports from the private sources and weaker than expected MPOB data. Ideas continue that production was starting to increase again. Export demand is much improved last month, and there is now talk that ending stocks will not increase despite increased production. Demand ideas are strong for this month as well. The charts show that December filled a small gap on the daily charts. Ideas are that here ill be plenty of production for any demand. Chart trends remain down.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are 351,699 tons so far this month, from 415,275 tons last month. AMSpec said that exports are now 308,380 tons, from 506,212 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 494.00, 490.00, and 487.00 November, with resistance at 500.00, 502.00, and 503.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2180, 2150, and 2140 December, with resistance at 2220, 2230, and 2250 December.

September Monthly MPOB Supply and Demand Report:
Observation period : Sep
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Wednesday, 10 Oct
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.86 mil tonnes, Up 14.7%
Exports – 1.65 mil tonnes, Up 50.0%
Ending Stocks – 2.47 mil tonnes, Down 0.7%
Actual as follows:
Production – 1.85 mil tonnes, Up 14.4%
Exports – 1.62 mil tonnes, Up 47.2%
Ending Stocks – 2.54 mil tonnes, Up 1.5%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.62 mil tonnes, Up 7.9%
Exports – 1.10 mil tonnes, Down 8.1%
Ending Stocks – 2.49 mil tonnes, Up 12.4%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers and storms today and again this weekend. Temperatures should be mostly below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October 48 December 120 December 50 December 17 November 12 December
November 48 December 60 December 21 November
December 55 December 65 December 20 January
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
October
November 7 December 65 December
December 275 January 8 December 80 December

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 10
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 476.60 dn 1.70
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 506.80 dn 2.80
2 Can 493.80 dn 2.80
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 521.80 dn 2.80
2 Can 508.80 dn 2.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 11
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 542.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 542.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 555.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 575.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Oct 545.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 545.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 555.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 577.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 515.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 450.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 2,110 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 186 -10.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1575)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 11
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 238,316 lots, or 9.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-18 3,761 3,761 3,692 3,692 3,745 3,738 -7 22 296
Jan-19 3,818 3,837 3,778 3,801 3,813 3,805 -8 217,290 268,794
Mar-19 3,837 3,837 3,790 3,828 3,831 3,821 -10 20 74
May-19 3,879 3,897 3,842 3,853 3,886 3,868 -18 20,000 34,026
Jul-19 – – – 3,883 3,901 3,883 -18 0 6
Sep-19 3,905 3,905 3,860 3,888 3,900 3,887 -13 944 2,336
Nov-19 – – – 3,910 3,923 3,910 -13 0 12
Jan-20 3,889 3,911 3,882 3,904 3,918 3,892 -26 40 136
Corn
Turnover: 763,830 lots, or 14.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-18 1,805 1,826 1,805 1,821 1,810 1,820 10 8,288 37,222
Jan-19 1,843 1,867 1,841 1,867 1,849 1,857 8 534,470 827,952
Mar-19 1,877 1,899 1,876 1,899 1,878 1,893 15 12,126 8,796
May-19 1,947 1,970 1,943 1,969 1,953 1,961 8 180,530 477,720
Jul-19 1,980 2,006 1,980 2,006 1,990 1,997 7 1,332 16,554
Sep-19 2,023 2,046 2,019 2,046 2,029 2,038 9 27,084 95,144
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,926,700 lots, or 99.17 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-18 3,658 3,692 3,628 3,632 3,635 3,657 22 60,708 60,004
Dec-18 3,600 3,610 3,537 3,585 3,566 3,581 15 128 1,366
Jan-19 3,504 3,539 3,478 3,497 3,485 3,506 21 2,124,362 2,674,894
Mar-19 3,354 3,399 3,336 3,358 3,354 3,366 12 146,818 65,184
May-19 2,966 2,995 2,916 2,925 2,960 2,956 -4 510,552 1,175,540
Jul-19 2,887 2,911 2,854 2,861 2,881 2,884 3 5,062 7,100
Aug-19 2,874 2,909 2,865 2,866 2,893 2,898 5 76 136
Sep-19 2,898 2,916 2,842 2,851 2,892 2,876 -16 78,994 174,458
Palm Oil
Turnover: 403,034 lots, or 19.24 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-18 – – – 4,906 4,906 4,906 0 0 0
Nov-18 – – – 4,666 4,666 4,666 0 0 2
Dec-18 – – – 4,870 4,870 4,870 0 0 34
Jan-19 4,798 4,800 4,682 4,718 4,800 4,742 -58 342,478 558,868
Feb-19 – – – 4,778 4,836 4,778 -58 0 12
Mar-19 – – – 4,790 4,848 4,790 -58 0 4
Apr-19 – – – 4,902 4,960 4,902 -58 0 18
May-19 5,000 5,002 4,876 4,924 5,000 4,940 -60 57,388 111,656
Jun-19 5,032 5,032 5,032 5,032 5,102 5,032 -70 4 54
Jul-19 5,032 5,032 5,032 5,032 5,096 5,032 -64 4 28
Aug-19 – – – 5,080 5,080 5,080 0 0 12
Sep-19 5,054 5,054 4,936 4,992 5,040 5,006 -34 3,160 9,000
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 701,642 lots, or 41.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-18 5,986 5,986 5,838 5,840 5,840 5,888 48 6 22
Dec-18 5,868 5,868 5,868 5,868 5,754 5,868 114 2 16
Jan-19 5,982 5,986 5,836 5,874 5,974 5,914 -60 562,528 870,168
Mar-19 5,952 6,004 5,920 5,920 6,024 5,968 -56 14 114
May-19 5,912 5,932 5,810 5,826 5,892 5,866 -26 131,018 370,564
Jul-19 – – – 5,872 5,898 5,872 -26 0 18
Aug-19 – – – 5,930 5,930 5,930 0 0 2
Sep-19 5,902 5,928 5,810 5,832 5,888 5,878 -10 8,074 18,588
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.