Morning Grains Report 10/12/17

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2017 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Thursday.
U.S. 2017 Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA Sept. USDA 2016
Corn Production 14,168 13,836-14,329 14,184 15,148
Corn Yield 169.7 167.0-171.2 169.9 174.6
Harvested Acres 83.5 82.9-84.0 83.5 86.7
Soybean Production 4,439 4,321-4,480 4,431 4,296
Soybean Yield 49.8 48.5-50.2 49.9 52.0
Harvested Acres 89.1 88.5-89.8 88.7 82.7

DJ U.S. October Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2017-18, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2017-18
Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 2,249 1,985-2,450 2,335
Soybeans 453 375-503 475
Wheat 946 928-971 933

DJ October World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2016-17 and 2017-18, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2016-17
Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 226.4 225.0-229.5 227.0
Soybeans 95.2 94.5-96.4 96.0
Wheat 252.4 225.5-256.2 255.8
2017-18
Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 201.5 196.7-204.0 202.5
Soybeans 96.5 93.9-98.0 97.5
Wheat 262.9 258.0-265.4 263.1

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 12
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL October Oct. 13, 2017 17 Oct 10, 2017

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets a little lower on speculative selling. Some rain is coming to the Midwest that will help recharge soil moisture for winter crops, and traders hope for drier weather to emerge in the Great Plains. Prices are not good and producers are in no hurry to plant. It has been too dry in Winter Wheat areas of the Midwest, and too wet in parts of the central and southern Great Plains for best planting progress and emergence. The Chicago markets had been trying to hold a seasonal rally together, while Minneapolis has tried form a bottom after the big fall in prices over the last several weeks. World prices remain firm, and some say that demand can start to improve as US prices are relatively cheap in the world market. US Wheat should be more attractive than many other origins into other markets due to price and currency relationships. US planting of the next Winter Wheat crop has been slow to get started due to some dry conditions in parts of the Great Plains. It is also still dry in Australia and in parts of eastern Europe, and Argentina has been too wet. Weather is said to be improving in southern Russia to help with Winter Wheat development there
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather, but light showers are possible on Saturday. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should get dry weather, but light showers are possible on Saturday. Temperatures should be below normal today and tomorrow, then near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather after some light precipitation today. Temperatures will average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 412 December. Support is at 429, 427, and 423 December, with resistance at 440, 446, and 450 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 428, 419, and 417 December. Support is at 426, 420, and 414 December, with resistance at 439, 444, and 447 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 599, 584, and 567 December. Support is at 606, 594, and 588 December, and resistance is at 628, 645, and 653 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher again as the market seems to anticipate bullish data from USDA today and also needs to find some Rice for the cash market as there is little available. The harvest is about over in the Delta and most Rice has been put into storage to wait for higher prices. The buying yesterday kept futures in a short-term range, but one with a view that higher prices could be coming. Reports from the country indicate good to very good yields and quality for the Delta as the harvest comes to a close in most areas. Interior cash prices are reported generally steady so far this week, and reports indicate that selling by producers has been limited as they hope for another push to higher prices. California will be the last to finish as the Delta harvest is about over now. Yields in California right now are lower than hoped for as the late start to planting appears to have created a short season and less yield potential.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers on Sunday, otherwise mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to above normal through the weekend, then near to below normal..
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1235 and 1335 November. Support is at 1200, 1192, and 1180 November, with resistance at 1217, 1223, and 1231 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower in quiet trading. It looks like most are waiting until the next round of USDA reports are released later today. The harvest has been slow this week due to rains in the Midwest. Reports indicate that farmers are not really selling due to expanding harvest activity and on weak basis levels being paid in some areas. Areas near the Mississippi River are still reporting very weak basis levels as there is little transport from the northern half of the river right now. Minnesota and Wisconsin saw a lot of rain last week, and there are hopes that river levels sill start to rise again and permit easier shipping of the crops. Harvest yield reports for Corn are strong as some fields in central and eastern areas of the Corn Belt are harvested. Many traders expect more variable yields to be reported moving forward. Harvest progress should expand this week, but the western Midwest harvest will remain very slow as farmers in many areas try to let the crops dry in the field due to the low prices and costs of drying.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 120,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 346, 344, and 340 December, and resistance is at 351, 356, and 358 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 246, 244, and 242 September, and resistance is at 253, 254, and 260 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were little changed in response to ideas of good harvest results and as traders wait for the USDA production reports that will be released later today. The harvest is likely to stay slow this week as there are rains in the Midwest. Rains moved through Chicago yesterday. The harvest is active in areas east of the Mississippi River, while areas to the west of the river have very little work done. The yield data generally runs behind year ago levels. However, producers had expected worse yields and are mostly happy right now. Producers are looking to harvest the Soybeans before the Corn as they hope to let the Corn dry down in the fields and save on drying costs basis levels should start to improve as the river levels move higher due to recent rains. It remains too dry for best planting in the northern half of Brazil, while the southern half of Brazil and the northern half of Argentina get too much rain. It is planting time for Soybeans there, but progress is very slow right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 960, 950, and 947 November, and resistance is at 978, 988, and 997 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 313.00, 310.00, and 308.00 December, and resistance is at 321.00, 325.00, and 326.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3280, 3230, and 3220 December, with resistance at 3340, 3360, and 3390 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower as traders anticipate potentially bearish USDA reports later today. Some support came from stronger world vegetable oils prices. Support is coming as recent rains and snow in the Prairies have created concerns of harvest delays. The delays are of biggest concern in Alberta, while Saskatchewan reported that yields are about at historical averages amid faster than normal harvest progress. The cash market is said to be well supplied right now as farmers have been delivering Canola. Palm Oil was higher on what was called speculative buying. Export data for the first third of the month was considered positive for prices. Charts show that the move lower can be extended this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 493.00, 490.00, and 487.00 November, with resistance at 498.00, 503.00, and 507.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2650, 2620, and 2590 December, with resistance at 2720, 2750, and 2770 December.

Monthly MPOB Supply and Demand Report:
Observation period : September
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Tuesday, 10 Oct
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.83 mil tonnes, Up 1.1%
Exports – 1.61 mil tonnes, Up 8.1%
Ending Stocks – 2.00 mil tonnes, Up 3.1%
Actual as follows:
Production – 1.78 mil tonnes, Down 1.7%
Exports – 1.52 mil tonnes, Up 1.8%
Ending Stocks – 2.02 mil tonnes, Up 4.0%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.81 mil tonnes, Down 0.9%
Exports – 1.49 mil tonnes, UP 6.4%
Ending Stocks – 1.94 mil tonnes, Up 8.8%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers and rains again over the weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October 26-Dec 177 Dec 40 Dec 18-Nov 4-Dec
November 33 Dec 61 Dec 34 Nov
December 38 Dec 58 Dec 35 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
October
November minus 16 Dec 50 Dec
December minus 15 Dec 67 Dec
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 11
Winnipeg, October 11 – The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 475.20 down 1.50
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 503.50 down 1.70
2 Can 490.50 down 1.70
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 518.50 down 1.70
2 Can 505.50 down 1.70
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 211.00 unchanged
Can Feed N/A
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 205.00 down 3.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – October 12
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 680.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 680.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 675.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 672.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 685.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 685.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 680.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 677.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 690.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 640.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 2,740 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 340.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2200)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 12
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 158,074 lots, or 6.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 3,731 3,731 3,731 0 0 88
Jan-18 3,850 3,853 3,803 3,808 3,870 3,825 -45 146,904 219,920
Mar-18 – – – 3,840 3,859 3,840 -19 0 22
May-18 3,853 3,860 3,835 3,842 3,867 3,847 -20 10,986 30,464
Jul-18 – – – 3,913 3,933 3,913 -20 0 4
Sep-18 3,875 3,885 3,864 3,870 3,889 3,874 -15 148 674
Nov-18 – – – 3,874 3,888 3,874 -14 0 2
Jan-19 3,926 3,939 3,918 3,920 3,926 3,933 7 36 150
Mar-19 – – – 3,941 3,941 3,941 0 0 0
Corn
Turnover: 376,732 lots, or 6.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 1,633 1,633 1,630 1,630 1,632 1,632 0 6 934
Jan-18 1,674 1,677 1,671 1,674 1,674 1,674 0 333,840 946,420
Mar-18 1,685 1,691 1,684 1,686 1,686 1,686 0 16 1,094
May-18 1,721 1,724 1,718 1,722 1,719 1,721 2 40,308 318,488
Jul-18 1,742 1,747 1,742 1,745 1,747 1,742 -5 46 492
Sep-18 1,745 1,751 1,745 1,749 1,748 1,748 0 2,516 21,862
Soymeal
Turnover: 541,224 lots, or 14.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 2,811 2,811 2,805 2,805 2,807 2,808 1 40 338
Dec-17 – – – 2,785 2,785 2,785 0 0 380
Jan-18 2,766 2,778 2,763 2,769 2,774 2,769 -5 456,060 1,595,786
Mar-18 – – – 2,771 2,771 2,771 0 0 276
May-18 2,714 2,725 2,711 2,716 2,719 2,717 -2 79,746 700,674
Jul-18 2,752 2,757 2,748 2,757 2,758 2,751 -7 46 218
Aug-18 2,749 2,760 2,749 2,760 2,733 2,751 18 10 174
Sep-18 2,738 2,745 2,736 2,738 2,742 2,739 -3 5,322 37,632
Palm Oil
Turnover: 332,912 lots, or 18.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-17 – – – 5,600 5,600 5,600 0 0 0
Nov-17 – – – 5,698 5,698 5,698 0 0 4
Dec-17 – – – 5,600 5,600 5,600 0 0 2
Jan-18 5,516 5,578 5,508 5,576 5,520 5,548 28 297,890 428,018
Feb-18 5,532 5,532 5,532 5,532 5,568 5,532 -36 2 6
Mar-18 – – – 5,568 5,604 5,568 -36 0 2
Apr-18 – – – 5,584 5,584 5,584 0 0 10
May-18 5,500 5,544 5,494 5,536 5,500 5,522 22 34,338 122,662
Jun-18 – – – 5,562 5,562 5,562 0 0 6
Jul-18 – – – 5,562 5,540 5,562 22 0 4
Aug-18 – – – 5,602 5,580 5,602 22 0 2
Sep-18 5,430 5,482 5,430 5,466 5,444 5,460 16 682 3,234
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 228,810 lots, or 13.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 6,078 6,078 6,078 0 0 26
Dec-17 5,998 5,998 5,998 5,998 5,972 5,998 26 2 14
Jan-18 6,038 6,082 6,036 6,072 6,048 6,058 10 206,076 706,010
Mar-18 – – – 6,190 6,180 6,190 10 0 6
May-18 6,170 6,216 6,168 6,202 6,178 6,192 14 22,040 135,678
Jul-18 – – – 6,406 6,392 6,406 14 0 4
Aug-18 – – – 6,420 6,406 6,420 14 0 6
Sep-18 6,256 6,284 6,248 6,266 6,252 6,266 14 692 2,558
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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