Morning Grains. 09/12/17

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2017 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Tuesday.
U.S. 2017 Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA August USDA 2016
Corn Production 14,000 13,821-14,195 14,153 15,148
Soybean Production 4,321 4,179-4,417 4,381 4,307
Corn Yield 167.8 165.5-170.0 169.5 174.6
Soybean Yield 48.7 47.1-49.8 49.4 52.1
Corn Soybean
Production Yield Production Yield
Advanced Market 13,986 167.5 4,344 49.0
AgriSource 13,902 166.5 4,277 48.2
Agrivisor 14,069 168.5 4,321 48.7
Allendale 13,920 166.7 4,179 47.1
DC Analysis 14,070 168.5 4,346 49.0
Doane 13,953 167.1 4,400 49.3
EDF Man 14,111 169.0 4,346 49.0
Farm Futures 13,978 167.8 4,354 49.1
Hueber Report 14,195 170.0 4,400 49.6
INTL FCStone 13,936 166.9 4,417 49.8
Sid Love Consultin 13,878 167.0 4,234 48.0
MaxYield 14,070 168.5 4,350 49.0
Price Group 13,945 167.0 4,282 48.3
Prime Ag 14,028 168.0 4,258 48.0
RJOBrien 13,821 165.5 4,255 48.0
RMC 13,946 167.0 4,260 48.0
US Commodities 14,003 167.9 4,410 49.5
Vantage RM 14,136 169.7 4,364 49.2
Zaner 14,044 168.2 4,301 48.5

DJ U.S. September Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2016-17 and 2017-18, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Tuesday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2016-17
Average Range USDA August
Corn 2,351 2,300-2,374 2,370
Soybeans 364 331-390 370

2017-18
Average Range USDA August
Corn 2,133 1,898-2,323 2,273
Soybeans 437 325-540 475
Wheat 920 875-943 933
2016-17 2017-18
Corn Soybeans Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 2,300 370 2,036 440 905
AgriSource 2,350 365 2,005 375 925
Agrivisor 2,370 350 2,189 411 933
Allendale 2,370 377 2,190 411 923
DC Analysis 2,321 352 2,198 422 933
Doane 2,345 350 2,053 540 911
EDF Man 2,370 370 2,232 440 933
Farm Futures 2,335 331 2,064 437 888
Hueber Report 2,370 370 2,290 495 930
INTL FCStone 2,335 345 2,056 487 883
Sid Love Consulting 2,370 370 1,898 409 907
MaxYield 2,320 380 2,323 485 930
Price Group 2,345 370 1,990 375 933
Prime-Ag 2,370 370 2,150 400 875
RJOBrien 2,326 340 1,932 325 935
RMC 2,370 370 2,273 460 933
US Commodities 2374 390 2,252 524 940
Vantage RM 2,370 370 2,233 454 943
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,360 375 2,154 415 928

DJ September World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2016-17 and 2017-18, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Tuesday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2016-17
Average Range USDA August
Corn 227.9 225.1-229.0 228.6
Soybeans 96.8 95.5-98.0 97.0
Wheat 258.5 257.5-259.0 258.6
2017-18
Average Range USDA August
Corn 198.2 189.4-203.0 200.9
Soybeans 97.3 95.0-100.0 97.8
Wheat 263.9 258.0-268.0 264.7
2016-17 2017-18
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 227.8 96.2 N/A 191.0 95.0 262.0
Agrivisor 228.0 96.5 258.5 198.0 96.0 265.0
Allendale 228.7 96.1 258.7 197.9 95.2 266.2
Doane N/A 96.5 N/A N/A 100.0 N/A
EDF Man 229.0 97.0 N/A 200.0 98.0 266.0
Farm Futures 227.0 97.0 259.0 200.0 98.0 261.0
Hueber Report 229.0 96.8 259.0 202.0 98.1 265.0
INTL FCStone 226.1 95.5 258.5 189.4 97.2 265.2
MaxYield 228.0 98.0 257.5 203.0 99.0 261.5
Prime-Ag 228.0 97.0 258.0 197.0 96.0 258.0
RMC 228.6 97.0 258.6 200.9 97.8 264.7
US Commodities 229.0 97.0 259.0 203.0 99.5 268.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 225.1 97.3 N/A 196.6 95.7 264.4

Crop Progress
Date 10-Sep 3-Sep 2016 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 34 25 40 40
Cotton Harvested 9 4 4
Corn Dough 96 92 99 97
Carn Dent 75 60 65 81
Corn Mature 21 12 31 31
Corn Harvested 5 5 6
Soybeans Dropping Leaves 22 11 24 25
Sorghum Coloring 74 62 82 74
Sorghum Mature 35 31 43 39
Sorghum Harvested 24 23 25 27
Rice Harvested 43 29 48 40
Oats Harvested 96 91 100 97
Spring Wheat Harvested 95 89 94 87
Barley Harvested 96 92 94 93
Sugar beets Harvested 6 8 6
Peanuts Harvested 3 4 3
Winter Wheat Planted 5 5 6

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Very Good
Cotton This Week 4 7 26 46 17
Cotton Last Week 6 5 24 46 19
Cotton Last Year 4 12 37 38 9
Corn This Week 4 9 26 48 13
Corn Last Week 4 9 26 48 13
Corn Last Year 2 5 19 54 20
Soybeans This Week 3 9 28 49 11
Soybeans Last Week 3 8 28 50 11
Soybeans Last Year 2 5 20 55 18
Sorghum This Week 2 5 27 55 11
Sorghum Last Week 2 6 29 53 10
Sorghum Last Year 1 5 29 51 14
Rice This Week 1 6 22 53 18
Rice Last Week 0 6 23 55 18
Rice Last Year 7 10 28 45 10
Peanuts This Week 1 5 17 56 21
Peanuts Last Week 0 4 16 60 20
Peanuts Last Year 2 7 27 51 13
Pasture and Range This Week 8 14 31 39 8
Pasture and Range Last week 8 13 42 40 7
Pasture and Range Last Year 5 11 31 44 9

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Sep 11
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING SEP 07, 2017
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 09/07/2017 08/31/2017 09/08/2016 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 1,895 599 14,122 20,765
CORN 662,173 817,059 1,344,928 662,173 1,634,938
FLAXSEED 48 0 0 3,623 2,731
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 499 499 0 2,495 3,399
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 51,382 6,572 64,993 51,382 66,167
SOYBEANS 1,106,268 710,922 948,570 1,106,268 1,151,994
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 446,957 290,728 743,979 8,193,687 8,003,337
Total 2,267,327 1,827,675 3,103,069 10,033,750 10,883,331
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 12
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL September Sep. 13, 2017 128 Sep 11, 2017
SOYBEAN OIL September Sep. 13, 2017 356 Sep 11, 2017
ROUGH RICE September Sep. 13, 2017 57 Sep 08, 2017
KC HRW WHEAT September Sep. 13, 2017 42 Sep 08, 2017
WHEAT September Sep. 13, 2017 7 Sep 07, 2017

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets closed mostly a little lower on weaker demand ideas and in preparation for the USDA reports today. The funds and other speculators were the best sellers as they see weaker world prices due to reduced Russian prices. Reports of big Russian production and fears of big and cheap Russian offers into the world market have kept prices weaker, but the lower US Dollar and problems with production in other parts of the world supports futures prices. The US Dollar turned higher yesterday, but chart trends remain down. World conditions have not been real good away from Russia as Canada, Australia, and the EU are all likely to have smaller than normal crops and Europe will have less high quality Wheat from Germany and Poland to export. It remains too dry in Australia and there are no forecasts for rain in growing areas. ABARES estimated the production at just 21.64 million tons, the lowest level in eight years. US Wheat is cheap again as the US Dollar has moved to new lows, so demand could start to improve in the export market for the US. If so, the need for high protein Wheat in world markets would imply that the best export demand will be for HRW and HRS.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be variable. Northern areas should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to below normal early in the week and near to above normal by the end of the week. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average below normal today, then above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 431, 429, and 427 December, with resistance at 440, 448, and 450 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 432, 427, and 420 December, with resistance at 439, 450, and 454 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 625, 620, and 584 December. Support is at 635, 626, and 616 December, and resistance is at 653, 658, and 668 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower in quiet trading as traders prepared for the USDA production reports that will be released later today Production could be lower than last month as the yield estimates from USDA seemed too high. Harvesting continues in both Texas and Louisiana in full force and the first crop harvest should be about done. Field yields have been variable to good, and quality is generally called good. Crops are now ready for harvest in areas from Mississippi to Missouri, although cool weather now could delay final maturity. Arkansas and Missouri will start the harvest very soon if the weather permits, and some have been able to start in the last week or so. It has been cool, so the crops have been slow to get mature. Crop potential in these states is an open question due primarily to harsh weather at the start of the growing season and variable conditions for much of the year, but producers seem to expect good quality crops.
Overnight News: The Delta should get big rains, mostly in Mississippi today, then dry weather in all areas. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up. Support is at 1264, 1258, and 1245 November, with resistance at 1279, 1286, and 1294 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were a little lower as the market got ready for the USDA reports today. Traders were keeping a close eye on the weather, and it remains cool and dry in the Midwest. The USDA reports are expected to show a slight decrease in the production estimates, but no one expects major changes to production estimates until next month when USDA will have extensive data. Traders also expect USDA to raise export demand in the wake of the Census Bureau reports a couple of weeks ago. Producers continue to show very little interest in selling Corn. Funds and other speculators were the best buyers of Corn once again. The weather will turn warmer for this week, but most areas need a little rain. There are no real forecasts for beneficial rains at this time for the Midwest. Irma brought a lot of rain and some wind to Southeast growing areas, and damage was possible. More will be Heard in a couple of days. The crop appears to be smaller than last year, but still big enough to maintain good availability for buyers. Farmers have been using rallies in Corn to get old crop supplies sold and create room for the nest harvest. The charts indicate that futures are still oversold at current levels, and there is no real strong resistance until futures work close to 370 December. Overall trends are sideways for Corn and down for Oats.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 355, 349, and 344 December, and resistance is at 360, 363, and 365 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 230, 228, and 224 September, and resistance is at 236, 241, and 244 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower again yesterday as traders got ready for the USDA reports. Soybean Oil was higher on spreads against Soybean Meal and hopes for increased demand for bio fuels due to the recent hurricanes and spikes in gasoline prices. Traders expect USDA to show slightly less production potential and increased export demand based on the latest Census Bureau data released a couple of weeks ago. Ideas of good crop production potential in the US continue, but the weather forecast is still important and the weather is less than great for the crops. The weather this week will feature some cooler temperatures, although warmer than last week. Temperatures will stay cool enough to retard development. It will be dry, and Soybeans need the precipitation now to help fill the pods. The crop will need a long growing season again this year as the crop needs time now to form additional pods and more Soybeans. Hurricane Irma will be moving into production areas of Georgia and the Carolinas early this week and could damage crops. Short term trends are turning up on the charts, and sideways or higher prices arte possible this week.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 956, 950, and 941 November, and resistance is at 968, 977, and 980 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 300.00, 297.00, and 294.00 October, and resistance is at 304.00, 307.00, and 311.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3460, 3420, and 3400 October, with resistance at 3550, 3580, and 3600 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower yesterday and made new lows for the move. Overall, the market is acting weak, and a stronger Canadian Dollar along with good harvest progress has been creating the selling interest. Light farmer selling from the start of the harvest remains a feature. The harvest is active, and yield reports for now indicate better than expected production. Some selling was reported last week, but overall supplies in the market remain tight. Both producers and buyers have been quiet until now and speculators are trading both side of the market. Palm Oil was higher on strong export data and despite bearish stocks levels shown by MPOB in the monthly report. The EU might scrap punitive duties for imported of Palm Oil based bio fuels. This would be a big demand boost for the market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 484.00, 480.00, and 476.00 November, with resistance at 491.00, 495.00, and 497.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2820 and 2880 November. Support is at 2750, 2720, and 2700 November, with resistance at 2830, 2860, and 2890 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry, but showers in the southeast areas today and tomorrow from Irma. Temperatures will trend to above normal over the weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September 19-Dec 150 Dec 35 Dec 37 Nov Oct Price
October 29-Dec 45 Dec 37 Nov
November 36 Dec 52 Dec 44 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
September
October minus 17 Oct 54 Dec
November minus 16 Dec 58 Dec
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 11
By Commodity News Service Canada
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder
Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 462.61 dn 2.30
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 495.70 dn 4.00
2 Can 482.70 dn 4.00
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 510.70 dn 4.00
2 Can 497.70 dn 4.00
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 190.00 unchanged
Can Feed n/a
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 197.00 up 2.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 12
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 707.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct 707.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 707.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 692.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Sep 712.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct 712.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 712.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 697.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 695.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 645.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 2,840 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 357.00 +11.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.2050)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 12
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 120,112 lots, or 4.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-17 – – – 3,738 3,738 3,738 0 0 0
Nov-17 – – – 3,780 3,780 3,780 0 0 86
Jan-18 3,820 3,824 3,796 3,809 3,808 3,813 5 117,140 278,124
Mar-18 3,818 3,841 3,815 3,815 3,805 3,824 19 6 24
May-18 3,856 3,863 3,836 3,850 3,850 3,853 3 2,930 12,248
Jul-18 – – – 3,942 3,942 3,942 0 0 6
Sep-18 3,912 3,912 3,900 3,905 3,907 3,904 -3 28 428
Nov-18 – – – 3,940 3,940 3,940 0 0 2
Jan-19 3,962 3,975 3,962 3,975 3,952 3,968 16 8 96
Corn
Turnover: 399,520 lots, or 6.76 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-17 – – – 1,662 1,662 1,662 0 0 1,638
Nov-17 1,642 1,647 1,642 1,646 1,647 1,645 -2 20 1,026
Jan-18 1,690 1,692 1,683 1,691 1,688 1,687 -1 359,724 1,172,518
Mar-18 1,689 1,693 1,689 1,693 1,694 1,690 -4 28 1,240
May-18 1,734 1,737 1,729 1,735 1,734 1,732 -2 39,728 223,362
Jul-18 1,757 1,757 1,750 1,755 1,753 1,753 0 20 246
Soymeal
Turnover: 841,108 lots, or 22.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-17 2,756 2,756 2,756 2,756 2,756 2,756 0 264 590
Nov-17 2,769 2,769 2,769 2,769 2,752 2,769 17 4 228
Dec-17 2,750 2,750 2,745 2,745 2,745 2,747 2 4 442
Jan-18 2,722 2,730 2,713 2,722 2,720 2,721 1 749,448 1,864,652
Mar-18 2,723 2,723 2,721 2,721 2,725 2,722 -3 8 372
May-18 2,662 2,671 2,657 2,665 2,661 2,663 2 91,370 660,682
Jul-18 – – – 2,697 2,697 2,697 0 0 250
Aug-18 2,706 2,720 2,700 2,709 2,701 2,707 6 10 310
Palm Oil
Turnover: 572,980 lots, or 32.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-17 5,668 5,668 5,668 5,668 5,602 5,668 66 48 10,800
Oct-17 – – – 5,618 5,618 5,618 0 0 0
Nov-17 – – – 5,718 5,652 5,718 66 0 4
Dec-17 – – – 5,670 5,570 5,670 100 0 2
Jan-18 5,650 5,672 5,606 5,662 5,570 5,642 72 543,842 610,334
Feb-18 5,668 5,668 5,668 5,668 5,744 5,668 -76 4 4
Mar-18 – – – 5,558 5,632 5,558 -74 0 2
Apr-18 – – – 5,552 5,552 5,552 0 0 10
May-18 5,668 5,678 5,616 5,650 5,590 5,652 62 29,086 81,884
Jun-18 – – – 5,688 5,668 5,688 20 0 12
Jul-18 – – – 5,686 5,686 5,686 0 0 6
Aug-18 – – – 5,784 5,722 5,784 62 0 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 448,044 lots, or 28.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-17 6,260 6,260 6,140 6,190 6,178 6,140 -38 1,622 9,096
Nov-17 – – – 6,358 6,358 6,358 0 0 28
Dec-17 – – – 6,350 6,366 6,350 -16 0 12
Jan-18 6,384 6,392 6,326 6,350 6,334 6,356 22 410,228 709,194
Mar-18 – – – 6,426 6,426 6,426 0 0 8
May-18 6,436 6,456 6,394 6,430 6,394 6,424 30 36,194 100,052
Jul-18 – – – 6,486 6,486 6,486 0 0 4
Aug-18 – – – 6,518 6,518 6,518 0 0 4
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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